Dutching to a Set
Liability spreadsheet
Lay to your
comfort level.
Choose how much to lose if you hit a winner with your lays.
Lay 1 to 25 runners, but your liability will remain the same.
A list of all my spreadsheets
lives here :- betandlay.co.uk/strategies
Strategies for horse racing and football trading
There are 3 methods
of Dutching shown here.
Each has its advantages over the others concerning odds input for
calculation, control of total stakes, and profit target.
Simple Dutching
Allows odds to be input in
any sequence
Stakes remain unaltered
throughout
There is no control of Total
Stakes.
Set Amount
(Stakes Limit) Dutching
The odds of ALL the
runners need to be input before calculations can be done
Stakes will adjust, if more selections are added.
There is total control of Total Stakes.
Dutching
to a
profit target
Maintains profit level
regardless of number of runners or odds.
As
the number of selections increases, all stakes are adjusted to maintain
the desired profit.
Total Stakes can spiral
alarmingly, especially if the odds are short.
Dutching is a method of staking several
selections in the same race.
Stakes are calculated so that providing
you hit the winner, each selection returns the same profit.
Dutching can be a very effective way of
betting on a number of selections in order to show a profit, but whilst
increasing the number of selections obviously increases your chance of
hitting the winner, every additional selection also reduces your overall odds,
and reduces your profit.
If Laying, the opposite applies.
Whilst
increasing the number of selections obviously increases your chance of
hitting the winner, every additional selection also reduces your overall odds,
but increases your profit it you miss the winner, since all your Lays will
be successful.
Bookies, or Betfair traders who Lay bets, are in effect Dutching the
market.
The number of bets placed is only limited
by the odds of your selections.
Once the combined percentage of all the odds of your selections exceeds 100%, the
calculation for Dutching cannot work, and returns a loss on every
selection.
You cannot Dutch an over-round book to profit by Betting.
Your Betting book must be under-round.
You cannot Dutch an under-round book to profit by Laying.
Your Laying book must be over-round.
Click on the Lay Tab above for an explanation of an over-round,
under-round book.
Odds as a percentage.
To calculate the percentage of your odds, divide the decimal "Betfair"
odds into 100.
For example, we know that even money is a 50 - 50 chance, so evens should
equal 50%.
Decimal "Betfair" odds for even money is 2.0.
100 divided by 2 = 50%
1/1 is 2.0 in decimal odds, so
100 / 2 = 50%
3/1 is 4.0 in decimal odds, so 100 / 4 = 25%
4/1 is 5.0 in decimal odds, so 100 / 5 = 20%
9/1 is 10.0 decimal odds, so 100 / 10 = 10%
Those percentages added together =
105%. The book is 5% over-round.
Odds of 1/1, 3/1 and 4/1 would = 95%. That book would be 5%
under-round.
Simple
Dutching.
This is the most commonly used method of Dutching.
I would guess that most Layers use this method to Lay selections to a
profitable book, but the same calculation can be used to Dutch Bet a
market.
The advantages of this method are that
The math's involved are
very simple
Each stake remains the
same regardless of the odds of other runners.
If used to Bet, there is no control of Total
Stakes.
As we Bet more runners, our liabilities increase.
If used to Lay, the
increase of total Bet £ accepted becomes an asset, as the
liabilities on a winner are offset by successful Lays on other
runners.
As we Lay more runners, our liabilities decrease.
We stand to lose a smaller amount on any winner due
to successful Lays on additional losers.
Dutching Example Betting.
As an example, we can Dutch selections priced at 4.0, 5.0 and
10.0, (total 55%).
Stakes would be :-
Odds
Stake
Winnings minus
Losing stakes
Net
profit
4.0
25
75 -
30
45
5.0
20
80 -
35
45
10.0
10
90 -
45
45
An equal profit will be shown providing the percentage of the combined odds of
your runners doesn't exceed 100%.
Above 100% will show an equal loss on all selections.
A big problem if Betting with Simple Dutching is that , our total stakes increase as
we add more selections, so our liabilities increase on any winner.
(We stand to lose a greater amount).
If we add further selections with odds of 10.0, our total stake
increases by £10, (100/10). With 2 selections priced 4.0, 5.0, our total stake stands at £45.
With 3 selections priced 4.0, 5.0, 10.0, our total stake increases to £55.
With 4 selections priced 4.0, 5.0, 10.0, 10.0, our total stake increases
to £65.
With 5 selections priced 4.0, 5.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, our total stake
increases to £75.
The size of the increase is in proportion
to the size of the odds.
Short odds add large increases, and longer odds add smaller increases.
For instance odds of 2.0 adds £50, whilst 20.0 adds
£5.
If Laying using Simple Dutching, the
increase of total Bet £ accepted becomes an asset, as the
liabilities on a winner are offset by successful Lays on other
runners. (We stand to lose a smaller amount on any winner due to
successful Lays on losers).
If we don't hit the winner, our net profit is the total of the stakes we
have accepted.
Odds
Stake
Successful Lays
less payout on a winner
4.0
25
30
-75 = -45
5.0
20
35
-80 = -45
10.0
10
45
-90 = -45
Net Profit
>>>
45
Now if we Lay further selections with odds of 10.0,
our total
payout decreases by £10, since we would have additional successful Lays. With 2 selections priced 4.0, 5.0, our total bets accepted stand at £45.
With 3 selections priced 4.0, 5.0, 10.0, our total bets accepted increases
to £55.
With 4 selections priced 4.0, 5.0, 10.0, 10.0, our total bets accepted increases
to £65.
With 5 selections priced 4.0, 5.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, our total bets
accepted increases to £75.
In each case, as more bets are accepted, we have more funds available to
pay out on a winner.
If we are able to Dutch a Lay market of more than 100%, we make a
guaranteed profit.
Click on the Lay Tab above for an explanation of Laying and making your
own book.
To sum up, as you Lay more runners your liabilities become less,
and the more you stand to make on a "Skinner" - any horse you haven't Layed.
Video 1 demonstrates inputs and how
the spreadsheet works.
Lay several runners in a horse race,
adjusting the stakes for almost an even money situation, even though
we don't expect to hit the winner with the horses that we have layed.
Link to my old startingstalls web site.
Use the Adjust feature to favour one
outcome over all the others.
Dutch Match Odds in a football match to Lay the Draw and then Lay
the 2 teams after a goal is scored.
Trade across more than one market.
Lay the Draw in
football markets with insurance
against a Nil - Nil result.
How to Lay or Bet below the £2
minimum. For a bigger view of the videos below,
click the icon with 4
small arrows near the bottom right
hand corner, just below the " T " in the word "Tube".
Excel spreadsheets are
a quick and reliable way
of doing calculations.
Purchase an excellent
spreadsheet here for only a fiver. Be A Bookie spreadsheet.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view this
spreadsheet.
This Be A Bookie spreadsheet
calculates instantly the lay stakes required to Lay up to 25 selections to an equal liability.
You could use this spreadsheet for any event - horse racing, football,
cricket, tennis etc..
Input the amount of your Total
Payout, and as you input the odds of your selections, the spreadsheet shows :-
Total payout on any
winner remaining constant at your original input.
The Lay stake
required for each runner.
Equal liabilities
against each runner.
Liability on each
runner reducing as more runners are Layed.
Percentage of your
book at all stages.
Total of Lay stakes
at all stages - "Skinner" amount.
The more runners
you Lay, the less your liabilities become.
The more runners you Lay, the bigger the payout on a
"Skinner" - a horse you haven't layed.
Note that this
spreadsheet is also available on the
Laying
web page.
After payment via
PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the
Excel spreadsheet file.
Be A Bookie
spreadsheet price = £5.
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment
button below.
Set
Amount (Stakes Limit) Dutching. Set Amount Dutching uses a different formula to control our total
stake to stop it spiralling as we add more selections.
In the simple Dutching example above, each
stake remains the same regardless of the odds of other runners.
With this Dutching formula, the stake on each runner decreases as
more runners are added.
In this way, the Total Stake remains constant.
This example uses a total stake of £100.
Odds
Stake x
Odds
Winnings
Minus
Losing stakes
Net
profit
4.0
45.45 x 3
136.35
36.36
+ 18.18 (54.54)
81.81
5.0
36.36 x 4
145.44
45.45
+ 18.18 (63.63)
81.81
10.0
18.18 x 9
163.62
45.45
+ 36.36 (81.81)
81.81
A winner at odds of 4.0 wins 3 x 45.45 = £136.35 less losers of £36.36
and £18.18 = a net profit of £81.81.
Before placing these bets, we could see
that we would be betting odds-on, since the percentage of the odds
combined exceeds 50% (evens).
Another indication is that our profit of £81.81 is less than our total stake of
£100.
If our percentage was less than 50%, our profit would be more than £100
and we
would be betting odds against.
Setting a stakes limit on your Dutching
is a very effective way of betting on more than one selection,
especially if you follow a staking plan.
Excel
spreadsheets are
a quick and reliable way
of doing calculations.
Purchase an excellent
spreadsheet here for only a fiver. Set Amount spreadsheet.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view this
spreadsheet.
This Set Amount spreadsheet
calculates the stakes required to bet up to 25 selections for an equal
profit whichever wins.
The only inputs required are the amount of your total stake and the odds
of your selections.
Your Total Stake amount remains constant no-matter how many selections
you have ... . . up to a max of 25.
The spreadsheet shows the stakes required for each selection to make an
equal profit on any winner.
The spreadsheet shows your profit, and for interest, the percentage
odds of your selections, and total percentage of your book.
After
payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the
PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain
the Excel spreadsheet file.
Set Amount
spreadsheet price = £5.
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment
button below.
Simple Dutching, each
stake remains the same regardless of the odds of other runners.
Set Amount Dutching, the stake on each runner
decreases as
more runners are added. The total stake remains constant.
Profit Target Dutching, the stake on
each runner increases as more runners are added.
The total stake increases as more runners are added.
Desired profit remains constant.
The Profit Target Dutching formula can also be applied
to any number of selections, providing the book percentage doesn't exceed
100%.
Odds
Stake
Stake x odds
Minus losing
stakes
Net Profit
10
2.5
2.5 x 9
22.5 - 2.5 =
20
20
10
2.5
2.5 x 9
22.5 - 2.5 =
20
20
If horse A wins, we have
£2.50 x 9 = 22.50, less a losing bet of £2.50 on Horse B = £20 profit.
If horse B wins, we have £2.50 x 9 = 22.50, less a losing bet of £2.50
on Horse A = £20 profit.
If we add another runner, our stakes
increase, but net profit remains virtually the same :-
Odds
Stake
Stake x odds
Minus losing
stakes
Net Profit
10
2.86
2.86 x 9
25.74 - 2.86
= 20.02
20.02
10
2.86
2.86 x 9
25.74 - 2.86
= 20.02
20.02
10
2.86
2.86 x 9
25.74 - 2.86
= 20.02
20.02
The Dutch to a Profit Target formula can be
expanded for any number of runners and any profit target £ amount, and
will work for any odds, provided your book doesn't exceed 100%.
Excel
spreadsheets are
a quick and reliable way
of doing calculations.
Purchase an excellent
spreadsheet here for only a fiver. Dutch to a Profit Target spreadsheet.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view this
spreadsheet.
This Profit Target Dutching
spreadsheet calculates the stakes required to bet up to 25 selections for an equal profit whichever wins.
The only inputs required are the amount of your required profit and the odds
of your selections.
The spreadsheet shows the stakes required for each selection to achieve
your required profit on any winner.
The spreadsheet shows your profit, total stakes, and for interest, the percentage
odds of your selections, plus total percentage of your book..
This spreadsheet
now has an Adjust feature which allows you to increase or
decrease the amount you would like to win on any individual
runners whilst maintaining your Profit target on all others.
You can therefore bias your profit on any runners that you
think may have a better chance of winning.
After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant"
option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where
you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.
Dutch to a Profit Target spreadsheet
price = £5.
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment
button below.
Dutching (Laying) to a Liability
Target
This Dutching method
offers total control of your liabilities whilst you lay up to 25
runners.
Use this spreadsheet to lay up to 25 runners for a liability of your
choice if you hit a winner.
Dutching to a Liability target.
The stake on
each runner increases as more runners are Layed.
The total stake (your "Skinner" amount if you don't hit the winner) increases as more runners are added.
Desired liability remains constant.
This Lay staking method may be suitable
for use with a staking plan.
Lay big odds for small liabilities if you choose.
Limit the amount you lose if you Lay
the winner - in any sport.
As you lay more runners, your
liability remains at the level of your choice.
As you lay more runners, your Total
Stakes increase.
If you don't hit the winner with your lays, all
your lays are successful and you clean up with profit equal to the
total of all your lay stakes.
A problem with this
method of Lay Dutching is that the odds of all your selections need
to be put into the spreadsheet before you start to place your lays.
If you alter any of the odds or you add another runner, ALL the
stakes will change in order to maintain your liabilities at your
chosen level.
How to Lay several
ruinners at once on Betfair.
Click the Lay odds on Betfair and input your stake as usual, but don't hit
"Submit".
Do the same for all your selections until you
have all your lays with stakes on show.
Once you are
satisfied with your staking, hit "Submit," and "Confirm" your Lays.
All your lays will
be submitted together in one go.
Excel
spreadsheets are
a quick and reliable way
of doing calculations.
Purchase an excellent
spreadsheet here for only a fiver. Dutch to a Lay Liability Target spreadsheet.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view this
spreadsheet.
This Dutch to a Lay
Liability Target spreadsheet calculates the stakes required to Lay up to
25 selections for an equal liability if you hit the winner with your
Lays.
The only inputs required are the names of your selections, the amount of the Liability that suits your
comfort level, and the Lay odds
of your selections.
The spreadsheet shows the stakes required for each selection and
maintains the liability on all selections at the level that you set. As you input more runners, the stakes adjust and your liability
always remains the same.
The spreadsheet shows your Liability, total stakes, and for interest, the percentage
odds of your selections, plus total percentage of your book..
This spreadsheet
also has an Adjust feature which allows you to increase or
decrease the size of your Liability on any individual
runners whilst maintaining your chosen Liability target on all other
runners.
You can therefore bias your liability on any runners
that you think may be more likely to lose.
After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant"
option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where
you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.
Dutch to a Lay Liability Target spreadsheet
price = £5.
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment
button below.
Problems. A problem with Dutching several runners is that placing a series of Bets or
Lays takes time.
During that time, the odds of your
selections often change.
You need to decide which Dutching method suits you best, a Set Amount for
your Total Stakes, uncontrolled Totals Stakes, or if you are laying,
total control of your liabilities.
If you are using the Simple Dutching method, time makes no difference since
your stakes remain the same regardless of the odds of other runners,
but you will have no control over increasing Total Stakes.
Simple Dutching is best suited to Laying in my opinion.
Dutching to a Profit Target could be used
as part of a staking plan.
This method is best suited to bigger priced selections, since short
prices can cause dramatic increases in stakes.
Minimize your Internet window and Excel window so that you
can see them together side by side.
Place all your bets so that you can see them all together -
Don't submit anything yet.
Adjust your spreadsheet and your bets to suit so that all
your bets carry the required stake at the current odds.
At the appropriate moment, submit the whole lot together,
and hopefully, you should get all matched in one go.
I know from experience that odd ones may not get matched due
to odds movements, but even using one touch software
submissions, it is difficult to get matched every time.
